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中美和谈:关税之后的世界
字数 4675阅读时长 12 分钟
2025-5-7
2025-5-13
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宏观总量 Macro aggregate

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博客资产配置系统上线。 开始布局印度市场。
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这个,没什么用啊。这都是短期的,而且已经被pricein对吧。 北京需要更强大的财政政策,货币政策更多只是辅助。但是内部有不同意见。 尤其是消费券等放水式财政政策面临很严重的地域问题,而社保等普惠长期性支持政策在短期见效不大,所以不被决策层偏好。
20250513更新数据中信icon 中证500减空424,净空3509 沪深300加空622,净空3万2025 上证50减空346,净多148 中证1000减空648,净空1万9705 中信今日累计减空796,净空单总数5万5091
 
摩根士丹利表示,随着中美达成贸易停战将提振中国经济,部分企业可能加快出口节奏以抢占关税缓冲期红利。该行预计中国第二季度GDP增速可能超过此前预测的4.5%,第三季度也有望高于先前预期的约4%。该行指出,此次关税暂停缓解了双边贸易几近中断的局面,但由于两国关系复杂,长期协议仍面临挑战。

固收市场 Fixed Income

转债

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转债的风险正在回升。
中位数价格:121.52元 (百分位:80.1%)
中位数溢价率:31.31% (百分位:62.28%)

同业拆借报告

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💡 未来基金产品的预判

大部分研报认为,未来指数化部门会更轻松。主动权益部门的压力稍大。
产品方面,也可以推出新一类的固收+指数化基金。
 
例如红利低波占比20%,国债政金债占比80%的指数年走势如下:
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是挺稳稳的幸福的。
没现成产品,也可以自建的,同志们。

沪深市场 HS300 Index

A股短期市场表现与关税战进展没有直接的线性关系,要么预期抢跑、要么预期混乱,当天盲目跟随最新消息很容易被兑现。今天市场在盘前关税利好下再度高开低走。 这里前期引领情绪的方向领跌、全A成交量也没有进一步往上,短期市场大概率进入震荡阶段。
全市场情绪指标:全A指数跌幅1%,全市场个股红盘率20%;短线情绪指标:连板率20%,炸板率30%。 今天全市场情绪较弱,短线情绪表现中规中矩。 盘面上,今天活跃资金以避险为主,日内上涨的板块主要是底部的光伏和避险的银行。 本轮最强的军工板块,今日出现分歧,但板块内部的高位股依然强势,并且板块中的三个高标股全部连板,成为市场进攻的火种。 军工板块今天出现分歧回落,意味着本轮情绪上升阶段的火车头动力不足,市场整体情绪从上升转向震荡。 今天市场调整之后,明天活跃资金大概率会尝试进攻修复,但修复力度需要边走边看。 另外,市场指数进入震荡阶段,题材进入轮动阶段,而军工板块保留了全市场的高标人气股。调整之后,军工板块必然会是最容易吸引资金关注的板块。 整体来看,市场进入震荡阶段,震荡阶段切忌追涨杀跌。不管是板块还是指数,大涨时往往是卖点,调整或恐慌下跌时往往是买点。
 
Exclusive: Beijing has issued first rare earth magnet export permits, Volkswagen suppliers on the list 独家:北京发放首批稀土磁体出口许可证,大众供应商在列
Companies 公司 Baotou INST Magnetic New Materials Co Ltd 包头英斯特磁性新材料有限公司 Follow 跟随 Baotou Tianhe Magnetics Technology Co Ltd 包头天和磁电技术有限公司 Follow 跟随 Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co Ltd 大地熊猫先进磁性材料有限公司 Follow 跟随 May 13 (Reuters) - China has issued export permits to at least four rare earth magnet producers including suppliers to Volkswagen , the German carmaker and industry sources said, the first granted since Beijing restricted shipments last month and a sign that the critical materials will continue to flow. 5 月 13 日(路透社)——中国已向至少四家稀土磁体生产商发放了出口许可证,其中包括大众汽车的供应商。德国汽车制造商和业内消息人士称,这是自北京上个月限制出口以来首次颁发出口许可证,表明关键材料将继续流通。 Baotou Tianhe Magnetics (603072.SS), opens new tab, which makes the magnets used in electric and hybrid car motors, received a licence for Volkswagen in late April, three sources said. One of the sources added that the automaker had reached out to Beijing to help during the process. 三位消息人士称,包头天和磁业股份有限公司(603072.SS)已于 4 月底获得大众汽车的许可。该公司主要生产用于电动和混合动力汽车电机的磁铁。其中一位消息人士补充说,大众汽车已联系北京方面寻求帮助。
"We remain in close contact with our suppliers and have received indications that a limited number of Volkswagen AG’s magnet suppliers have been granted export licenses by the Chinese government," Volkswagen said in response to questions from Reuters, declining to provide further detail. 大众汽车在回答路透社的提问时表示:“我们与供应商保持着密切联系,并收到消息称,少数大众汽车磁铁供应商已获得中国政府的出口许可证。”但拒绝提供进一步细节。 Zhongke Sanhuan received at least one permit, two of the sources said. Baotou INST Magnetic (301622.SZ), opens new tab and Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material (688077.SS), opens new tab were also granted at least one permit, one of the sources added. 两位消息人士称,中科三环至少获得了一张许可证。其中一位消息人士补充道,包头英泰磁业(301622.SZ)和大地熊猫先进磁材(688077.SS)也至少获得了一张许可证。 The sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. 由于事态敏感,消息人士拒绝透露姓名。 The four magnet producers and China's commerce ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comments. 这四家磁铁生产商和中国商务部尚未立即回应置评请求。
Export licenses are granted for each customer and it is unclear whether all clients of the four firms have been cleared by Beijing. One of the sources said permits were only issued to suppliers for customers in Europe and Vietnam. 出口许可证是按客户发放的 ,目前尚不清楚这四家公司的所有客户是否都已获得北京方面的批准。其中一位消息人士称,许可证仅发放给了欧洲和越南客户的供应商。 However, the permits were issued before the trade war truce agreed with Washington on Monday, which industry sources said is likely to make it easier for U.S. customers to win approvals. 然而,这些许可证是在周一与华盛顿达成贸易战停战协议之前颁发的,业内消息人士称,这可能会让美国客户更容易获得批准。 Beijing issued the permits less than a month after it imposed restrictions on seven rare earth elements and related materials as part of a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's earlier tariffs, bucking industry expectations of a long wait. 作为对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普早先征收关税的回应,北京对七种稀土元素及相关材料实施限制 ,不到一个月就颁发了许可证,打破了业界对长期等待的预期 。 The sources said the permits were the first to be issued since Beijing imposed its curbs. 消息人士称,这是北京实施限制措施以来首次颁发的许可证。 China dominates the processing of the 17 rare earth elements used across clean energy, defence and automaking and companies have few, if any, alternative suppliers. 中国在清洁能源、国防和汽车制造领域使用的 17 种稀土元素加工领域占据主导地位,企业几乎没有替代供应商。
That dependence is demonstrated by Volkswagen's intervention as well as lobbying from other big Western users. Elon Musk said last month Tesla was in talks with Beijing over licenses for its Optimus robots. 大众汽车的介入以及其他西方大型用户的游说都体现了这种依赖。埃隆·马斯克上个月表示, 特斯拉正在与北京就其擎天柱机器人的许可证进行谈判 。

香港市场 Hang Seng Index

 
 
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纳斯达克市场 NASQ Index

US consumer prices rise moderately in April 美国四月份消费者价格温和上涨
WASHINGTON, May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rebounded moderately in April, but inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months as tariffs boost the cost of imported goods. 华盛顿 5 月 13 日(路透社)——美国 4 月份消费者价格温和反弹,但由于关税推高进口商品成本,未来几个月通胀可能会回升。 The consumer price index CPI increased 0.2% last month after dipping 0.1% in March, which was the first decline since May 2020, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.3%. In the 12 months through April, the CPI climbed 2.3% after advancing by 2.4% in the 12 months through March. 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布,消费者价格指数(CPI)上月上涨 0.2%,3 月下降 0.1%,为 2020 年 5 月以来首次下降。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测 CPI 将上涨 0.3%。截至 4 月的 12 个月里,CPI 上涨了 2.3%,而截至 3 月的 12 个月里,CPI 上涨了 2.4%。 Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.2% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. The so-called core CPI inflation increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in April after rising 2.8% in March. 扣除波动较大的食品和能源成分,美国 4 月 CPI 上涨 0.2%,3 月为上涨 0.1%。4 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%,3 月为上涨 2.8%。 The data likely only captures tariffs, including a doubling of fentanyl-related taxes on all Chinese imports to 20% and a 25% levy on imported cars and light trucks, imposed before President Donald Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement. 这些数据可能仅涵盖关税,包括对所有中国进口商品的芬太尼相关税增加一倍至 20%,以及对进口汽车和轻型卡车征收 25% 的税,这些关税是在唐纳德· 特朗普总统 4 月 2 日宣布“解放日”之前征收的。 While Trump in April paused for 90 days most of his country-specific tariffs, a 10% blanket duty on almost all imports remained in place. Economists said they expected the hit from the tariffs on prices to start showing up significantly beginning with May's CPI report. 虽然特朗普在 4 月份暂停了大部分针对特定国家的关税 ,为期 90 天,但几乎所有进口产品仍维持 10%的统一关税。经济学家表示,他们预计关税对价格的影响将从 5 月份的消费者物价指数报告开始显著显现。 The U.S. and China took a major step towards de-escalating their trade war over the weekend, with Washington agreeing to slash duties on Chinese goods to 30% for the next 90 days. Tariffs on U.S. goods imported into China would decline to 10% from 125%. 上周末,中美两国朝着缓和贸易战迈出了重要一步,华盛顿同意在未来 90 天内将中国输美商品的关税降至 30%。中国对美国商品的进口关税将从 125%降至 10%。 Economists still expect inflation to rise this year because of tariffs, but probably not as sharply as they had anticipated before the 90-day truce between the world's two largest economies, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its wait-and-see stance. They also see the easing of trade tensions to help the U.S. economy to avert a recession, though growth was likely to be sluggish this year. 经济学家仍预计,由于关税,今年通胀将上升,但可能不会像世界两大经济体签署90天贸易休战协议前预期的那样大幅上升,这使得美联储得以维持观望立场。他们还认为,贸易紧张局势的缓解将有助于美国经济避免衰退,尽管今年经济增长可能依然疲软。 "Inflation will likely rise to a lesser degree, peaking at around 3.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter this year instead of our prior forecast of 4%," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. "Economic growth still slows since tariff rates will be higher than before President Trump took office." Nationwide 首席经济学家凯西·博斯蒂安契奇(Kathy Bostjancic)表示:“通胀率的上升幅度可能会有所减缓,今年第四季度的同比涨幅将达到 3.4%左右的峰值,而非我们之前预测的 4%。由于关税税率将高于特朗普总统上任前,经济增长仍将放缓。” The Fed has a 2% inflation target. U.S. duties are looming on pharmaceutical products and semiconductors. Trump sees tariffs as a tool to raise revenue to offset his promised tax cuts and to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base. 美联储的通胀目标为2%。美国即将对医药产品和半导体征收关税。特朗普将关税视为增加收入的工具,以抵消其承诺的减税效应,并重振长期衰退的美国工业基础。 The Fed last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Financial markets expect the central bank to resume its policy easing in September. 美联储上周维持基准隔夜利率在 4.25%-4.50%区间不变,金融市场预期央行将在 9 月重启政策宽松。
与美债不同,外资的流动与美股回报率长期保持正相关,美股表现良好时,海外资金资金往往会持续流入。自2011年以来,外资持股市值已从3.8万亿美元增至18.6万亿美元,占美股总市值比重由25%升至三分之一。相比之下,美债对外资流动的相关性明显较低。

小作文

1宁波海运:会谈超预期,利好港口航运对M,出口占比高企业,果链N链等。集运欧线期货大涨。南京港连云港凤凰航运宁波远洋海通发展 2天虹股份:是咱们航空工业集团控股的核心零售平台,与中航成飞、成飞集成等军工企业同属一个资本体系。 3南兴股份:AI智能体,AI智能体平台Manus宣布开放注册。智能体公司,酷特智能:与华为合作升级AI Agent2.0预计2025年完成 4集泰股份:光伏传闻,计划由硅料行业目前的前六家来收购并购剩余所有的硅料产能,协鑫、通威、大全、新特、东方希望和亚洲硅业。 5中化国际:机器人新材料mxd6,错过peek,别错过mxd6,WXD6(聚已二的间苯二甲发)和PEEK(聚查图均为经量化和高性能工程塑料。格局打开,本段子没有拉饼的意思而日PEK已经成功应用在机器人零部件上,产业涉度快于ND6、我们心希望有更多更好的新材料而用干机器人,mxd6,神马股份,七彩化学,泰禾股份,中化国际,美联新材,开滦股份, 6电投产融:正在有序推进重大资产重组 7贝瑞基因:AI医疗,事件,OpenAI推出医疗开源测试基准HealthBench 8泰嘉股份:传T讯下单10万台九10c, 9"奥克股份:开展羟基醋、醇胺系列等产品的经营工作 .科隆股份.烯酸羟基醋系列产品开拓国内外市场,.红墙股份:羟基酯涨价" 10乐凯胶片:影像材料和新能源材料系统服务商,品牌在国内外具有极高的知名度。事件:撕拉片暴涨40倍+,拍立得相纸涨价上热搜! 11北方国际,W重建,事件,T暗示本周可能亲自参与EW会谈 12宏景科技:再签算力组网集成合同!项目总金额超 3 亿! 13合锻智能:事件,中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院等离子体物理研究所近期采购项目发布 14四川九州:四川出台16条措施!重点发布7款低空产品、8条低空运输航线 15利民股份:代森锰锌价格创2年新高,利民股份,蓝丰生化

段子 Market Jokes

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寰宇·量化模型指引 Quantitative Investment

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附录

最新净值:投资组合当前的净值,反映组合的当前价值。
年复合收益率:反映长期投资回报的年复合收益率,考虑了复利效应。
胜率:盈利交易在总交易中的比例,反映策略的成功率。
盈亏比:平均盈利与平均亏损的比率,反映风险管理能力。
夏普比率:反映风险调整后的收益能力,夏普比率越高,表明单位风险下的收益越高。
当前回撤:当前投资组合的亏损幅度,从最近峰值到当前值的下降比率。
最大回撤:历史最大亏损幅度,衡量潜在亏损的重要指标。
Calmar比率:年化收益率与最大回撤的比值,反映策略的风险调整后收益能力。
SQN(系统质量指数):衡量交易系统的整体质量,考虑了收益、风险和交易频率。
VWR(波动率加权回报):考虑波动率后的收益率指标,更好地反映风险调整后的收益。
总交易次数:策略执行的总交易次数,反映交易频率。
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